Day-Ahead Power Price Forecast

Forecasts generated by a LightGBM model trained on 8 years of ENTSO-E day-ahead prices (2018–2026) with weather features (temperature, wind, humidity, pressure) from Open-Meteo, and lag features up to 2 weeks. Directional accuracy measures % of hours where the model correctly predicts up/down vs the previous hour. Within ±10 EUR/MWh measures % of predictions within a ±10 EUR/MWh band of the actual. Actuals sourced from ENTSO-E Transparency Platform. LCOH impact uses simplified formula: (avg_price × 55 kWh/kg) ÷ (1000 × 0.70 CF). Not financial advice — for indicative modelling only.